RoguePundit

The Cold is Easing

I'm glad that this cold snap--the hardest here since 1998--is finally coming to an end.  Besides the fact that it's tough on some of my plants that are--or were--borderline hardy, I've had the added pleasure of losing power in the wee hours of two of the last three mornings and not getting it back until the afternoon.

On December 6-10, I had lows of 22, 16, 13, 12, and 12.  It's worth noting though that this is the time of year when nearby Grants Pass set its all-time record low.  On December 8-11 of 1972, the lows in Grants Pass were 4, -1, -1, and 0.  On those same days in Medford, the lows were -6, -6, -6, and -3...with -6 indeed being the all-time record.

On the other side of the mountains, winters are certainly colder in KIamath Falls.  However, the all-time record there isn't that much lower...-17 on December 9, 1972.  Meanwhile up in Bend, the all-time record low of -26 was set twice, January 31, 1950 and February 9, 1933.  In that same cold snap in 1972, Bend "only" got as low as -24.  The all-time record low in the state was in Seneca--about 25 miles south of John Day--on February 10, 1933...-54.  Yikes.

By the by, in Grants Pass there are still seven record lows on the books from December of 1990, the coldest of them being 3 on the 22d.  Plus, January 1 & 2 of 1991 also set record lows.  That was a cold winter...for here.

Less Screening, More Defects

Despite the exams being free...

Deng Xingzhou, director of the Beijing municipal commission of population and family planning, said the most important reason for the increasing rate of birth defects is that couples do not have pre-marital physical examinations.

"The examination can find latency diseases before pregnancy and prevent birth defects," he said.

However, less than 30 percent of couples have such tests in Beijing, Deng said.

The local health bureau website said the increase in birth defects jumped from a steady 1 percent between 1997 and 2003, when the government stopped requiring couples to take the exam, to 1.4 percent in 2004.

Over the next four years it continued to rise to 1.7 percent, but then dropped off slightly to 1.6 percent this year.

The BBC article at this link notes that 1.7 percent is "significantly higher" than the global average.  Guess it all depends upon who's counting what.  According to the March of Dimes, China's rate of 51.2 per 1,000 live births (5.12 percent) is below the global average of about 6 percent.  The U.S. rate is 47.8 per thousand, which only ranks us 20th in the world...the best is France at 39.7.  At the other end of the scale, Saudi Arabia (81.3 per) is trailed only by the Sudan at 82.0 per 1,000.

Meanwhile, the CDC says that one in 33 babies [roughly 3 percent] born in the U.S. are affected by birth defects.  Heart defects are easily the most common, making up more than a quarter of all birth defects.  Over 20 percent of infant deaths here are from birth defects. Returning to the article...

"Pollution in the city and pregnancies in older women can lead to birth defects," said Zhou Zhongshu, director of pediatrics at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital.

She said air pollution causes the incidence rate of birth defects in the city to be higher than in the countryside

Unmentioned was how many girls in China are aborted because their "defect" was being the wrong sex.  When 119 boys are born for every 100 girls, you can sure tell what type of screening matters to many Chinese parents.  

Mouthwashes With Alcohol

Every few weeks, we're greeted with another story telling us how moderate consumption of alcohol--especially wine--may be good for our health.  Yet, there are also a number of studies which show that just putting alcohol into our mouths can cause problems.  From this link...

Dental researchers warned yesterday that among people using such mouthwashes, the risk of oral cancer was increased nine times if they smoked, and five times if they drank alcohol.

For non-drinkers using alcohol-based mouthwashes, the risk of oral cancer is just under five times higher, the experts warn in the latest edition of the National Prescribing Service journal Australian Prescriber.

Brands of mouthwash with more than 20 per cent alcohol could have other harmful effects, including the gum disease gingivitis, flat red spots called petechiae and detachment of the cells lining the mouth, they said.

"Although many popular mouthwashes may help to control dental plaque and gingivitis, they should only be used for a short time and only as an adjunct to other oral hygiene measures such as brushing and flossing," they wrote. "Long-term use of ethanol-containing mouthwashes should be discouraged, given recent evidence of a possible link with oral cancer."

Don't swirl that wine around in your mouth...gulp it down to be safer.  Not.

I have a friend with throat cancer who drinks too much and smokes.

At least three quarters of people who have a mouth and throat cancer consume alcohol frequently. People who drink alcohol frequently are 6 times more likely to develop one of these cancers. People who both drink alcohol and smoke often have a much higher risk than people who use only tobacco alone.

And after quitting for his radiation treatment, he resumed smoking and drinking.  Heavy sigh...

Presuming It's the Flu (Updated)

According to World Health Organization data published today, H1N1 has killed "at least 6,260 people" around the globe, the majority here in North America.  European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control data--also published today--has the global death toll at 6,768.  That's obviously sad, but the totals remain far below the typical number of deaths caused by garden-variety flu viruses every winter. 

It seems like whenever folks have flu-like symptoms nowadays, people assume that the swine flu (an incorrect name which has stuck to H1N1) is the cause.  Turns out that when folks spend the money to actually test for the cause, a number of cases aren't even a type of the flu.  For instance...

Tests at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia suggest that large numbers of people who got sick this fall actually fell victim to a sudden, unusually severe -- and continuing -- outbreak of rhinovirus, better known as a key cause of the common cold.

Experts say it is logistically and financially impossible to test everyone with flu-like symptoms. And signs, treatment, and prognoses for a bad cold and a mild flu are virtually identical, so the response hardly differs.

...

For years, rhinoviruses have been the Rodney Dangerfields of microbes. Even major institutions have found plenty of reasons not to pay them much mind. They are exceedingly common, they cause mere colds, they come in hundreds of hard-to-identify strains that make testing a challenge, and there is no effective treatment anyway.

Only about half of the maladies we consider the common cold are caused by rhinoviruses.

Rhinovirus -- named after the Greek word for nose -- is known to circulate year-round, and typically to peak shortly before and after flu season. Children's recorded rising numbers in September, right on schedule. Then they kept rising.

"The rate of activity was unbelievably high," Richard L. Hodinka, director of the clinical virology laboratory, said yesterday. "What got my attention was not only the numbers we were seeing in the laboratory, but physicians saying there was severe disease."

...

Besides the sheer numbers of rhinovirus, [Dr.] Coffin was surprised that it was causing more problems -- wheezing, pneumonia, fever, and lower-respiratory-tract infections -- than are normally associated with the common cold, which typically infects the upper respiratory tract. That has led her to suspect that a strain not seen here before may be responsible. The CDC's lab will attempt to identify the strain.

With no nationwide reporting and few other hospitals routinely testing for rhinovirus, it is difficult to determine whether it is causing similar problems elsewhere. Hodinka, the Children's lab director, said rhinovirus outbreaks generally were not limited to one city; he suspects that this one is occurring in other East Coast cities.

The article did offer a curious thought regarding the relationship between rhinoviruses and the flu.

Mackay [a leading researcher in emerging viruses at the Queensland Paediatric Infectious Diseases Laboratory in Australia] also is intrigued by the possibility that the timing of Philadelphia's rhinovirus outbreak -- like others, shortly before the flu -- was more than coincidence.

A fledgling, highly controversial theory suggests that circulating rhinovirus can somehow delay the spread of influenza -- one more reason, Mackay said, to increase the testing and study of rhinovirus.

If nothing else, it may help attract more funding to the research of the many common colds.

Update:  Here's some info from a German article on H1N1 numbers.

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German federal institution responsible for disease control and prevention, there are now 30,000 registered cases of swine flu infection. But that number is relatively meaningless, because the RKI database generally includes only those cases in which a very complex, costly and rarely performed series of laboratory tests has confirmed the diagnosis.

"A precise estimate is not possible at this time," says Gérard Krause, the head of the RKI's Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology. The virus has become so widespread that it can now be contracted virtually anywhere. Many of those with symptoms don't even go to the doctor, while a significant percentage of those infected have no symptoms at all. Scientists are surprised by how many people already have antibodies against H1N1 in their blood without even knowing that they had the swine flu.

Conversely, not everyone who is sick in bed with a fever and a cough has the swine flu. More than 200 different viruses can cause flu-like symptoms. Of the throat swabs taken from patients suspected of having swine flu that were sent to the RKI's National Reference Center, only 40 percent actually tested positive for H1N1 in the end. In other words, three out of five patients believed to be infected with the virus did not have swine flu.

Germany has had 16 deaths from H1N1.

Homeless Sent Home

According to the San Francisco Homeless Services Coalition:

- San Francisco has the highest per capita rate of homelessness of any major American city.  7,000 homeless people live in SF at a given time.  Some estimates put the number as high as 15,000 (SF Plan to Abolish Chronic Homelessness).

- Only 15% of the homeless in SF are from out of state.  Another 15% are from out of the city.  Over 60% of SF’s homeless are natives (SF Bay Area counties point-in-time counts).

Switching links... 

An estimated 6,000 to 12,000 people are homeless on any given night in San Francisco, according to officials with Project Homeless Connect, which was launched by Mayor Gavin Newsom. But the program, and others he’s championed, has resulted in 10,000 people leaving San Francisco’s streets and shelters since 2004, he said.

The results would be more impressive if not for the following.

More than 4,000 of the previously homeless people in San Francisco were returned to their home cities with a bus ticket funded through The City’s Homeward Bound Program, according to the Mayor’s Office.

Gosh, is that considered progressive now?  No doubt a complementary one-way bus ticket was how a few of those folks got to San Francisco, but still...

According to the program’s outreach information, Homeward Bound applicants must have a place to reside at the destination city where there's "ample support." Program staff contact family or friends at the destination before the homeless person is given a ticket, and they follow up with the participant one month later to check on their well-being.

However, Jennifer Friedenbach, executive director of the San Francisco-based Coalition on Homelessness, was skeptical of the mayor’s assertions.

"You can’t claim you housed people by giving them a bus ticket," she said.

In too many bureaucracies, an action passed is an action completed. 

Deluxe Ambulance Service

The major concern wasn't that the following patient could die of embarrassment.

The memory still bothers Ken Keller: A panicked ambulance crew had a critically ill patient, but the man weighed more than 1,000 pounds and could not fit inside the vehicle. And the stretcher wasn't sturdy enough to hold him.

The crew offered an idea to Keller, who was then an investigator with the Kansas Board of Emergency Medical Services. Could they use a forklift to load the man — bed and all — onto a flatbed truck? Keller agreed: There was no other choice.

"I'm sure it was terribly embarrassing to be in his own bed, riding on the back of a flatbed with straps tying him down, going to the hospital, and then have a forklift at the hospital unload him," Keller said.

Sadly, the article included no mention of the feeder--the person who enabled the man to get that morbidly obese.  People who are 1,000 pounds can't fend for themselves, yet someone obviously keeps bringing them plenty of food. Why are we ignoring the people who help create this type of problem?

As the nation battles the obesity crisis, ambulance crews are trying to improve how they transport extremely heavy patients, who become significantly more difficult to move as they surpass 350 pounds. And caring for such patients is expensive, requiring costly equipment and extra workers, so some ambulance companies have started charging higher fees for especially overweight people.

The move to modify ambulances is just the latest effort to accommodate plus-sized patients. Some hospitals already offer specially designed beds, wheelchairs, walkers and even commodes.

Ambulance companies say it's time for insurance providers, Medicaid and Medicare, or patients themselves to begin paying the added costs, which are cutting into their razor-thin profit margins.

...

Higher payments for heavy patients are commonplace in Oregon and Washington because the insurance industry there acknowledges the additional costs, said Liz Merritt, a spokeswoman for Scottsdale, Ariz.-based Rural/Metro Corporation, an ambulance provider.

With obesity on the rise, the manufacturing of bariatric equipment and supplies is booming. Meanwhile, some figure that having to pay extra for specialized service using such equipment is discrimination. 

"Ambulance services are a critical public service and should accommodate the needs of all of those who require them at a fair cost," said Joseph Nadglowski, president of the Obesity Action Coalition, a group that advocates for the obese.

Activists use the term "fair" when they want more of our money.  Of course, it's rather perverse seeing advocates of healthcare reform decry discrimination based upon pre-existing conditions, and then recommend penalizing folks for conditions like obesity. 

Moving Transients Through Alcohol

The Washington-Jefferson Park in Eugene has become a popular transient hangout.  Sadly but not necessarily surprisingly, crime and public drunkenness in the area are up.  How have authorities chosen to address this?  More police involvement and...

Oregon Liquor Control Commission regulators have asked the owners of the Neighborhood Market, 7-Eleven and Jacksons to pull the cheapest malt liquor beverages from their shelves because their heavy consumption by transients is contributing to alcohol-related crime and problems in the Whiteaker and downtown areas.

Asked?  Right.  It was Mayor Kitty Percy who asked the OLCC to get involved.

"We have been working on trying to negotiate something with the store owners for the last month," OLCC Regional Manager Pete O'Rourke said. "We prefer that the businesses stop selling (the alcohol) voluntarily."

The stores would continue selling a wide variety of beer and wine, but regulators want them to curb the sale of malt liquors that cost less than $2.50 for a 24-ounce or 32-ounce can or bottle. Two of the most popular brands of that type are Steel Reserve High Gravity and Hurricane High Gravity, which contain much higher levels of alcohol than most beers. The beverages are sold in many stores.

In interviews, the three store owners said they will consider OLCC's request, but that they would be reluctant to pull the products if other convenience stores can continue to sell them.

Move the transients, move the problems.  Store owners in other areas would then profit while a new set of nearby residents and businesses would suffer. Great.

Of note though is that the owner of the Neighborhood Market, Nick Dhote, isn't helping the situation.  He claims he's being unfairly blamed for the situation in and around the park, but...

Police cited Dhote four times in the past several weeks, including twice last week for selling alcohol to an intoxicated person and a minor, said Fitzpatrick, the police sergeant.

Retailers who are convicted of liquor law violations are subject to fines. Multiple convictions can lead to license suspensions and revocations.

That's a legitimate reason for the OLCC to get involved.  The following is just thuggish behavior. 

O’Rourke, the OLCC regional manager, said that if the store owners don’t cooperate with authorities to curb public intoxication, they can expect frequent visits by investigators looking for liquor violations.

By the way, Steel Reserve High Gravity is made by a subsidiary of MillerCoors LLC, a joint venture of SAB Miller and Molson Coors.  Because of the success of Steel Reserve, Anheuser-Busch developed a similar product, Hurricane High Gravity.  For when drinking is merely a means to an end...

Less Publishing, More Care

Here's another example of spending research dollars to document something we already knew.

A recent study has found that young adults are much less likely to use ambulatory or preventive care, even though their mortality rate is more than twice that of adolescents.

"Young adults are generally a healthy population, but many risky behaviors peak in young adulthood and few resources are available for this population," said Robert J.Fortuna, M.D., M.P.H., senior instructor in Pediatrics and Internal Medicine at the University of Rochester Medical Center (URMC). "Despite having the highest rate of many preventable diseases, young adults garner relatively little attention from advocacy groups, researchers or policymakers."

...

Ambulatory care may be relatively underused by this age group for a number of reasons, including limited access to care, lack of health insurance and low self-perceived risk, explained the authors. Young adults are the most likely age group to be uninsured, with nearly one-third lacking medical coverage. The study found that young adults without insurance had one-fourth as many visits as those with insurance.

The prevalence of substance abuse, sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), homicide and motor vehicle crashes all peak in young adulthood. Yet the study’s findings show that when young adults were offered counseling, which occurred at about one third of all ambulatory care visits, they infrequently received counseling directed at the greatest threats to their health.

And as one would figure, men sought far less preventative care than women, and young black and Hispanic men received less care than young white men.

As one would figure, the study is being used to lobby for more money.

The authors pointed to the goals of Healthy People 2010, a set of national objectives provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, as an important reason to evaluate how ambulatory care is used by young adults. The set objectives aim to reduce mortality, motor vehicle crashes, the incidence of STDs and alcohol- and drug-related injuries among young adults. The study concludes that to reach these goals, young adults need to have access to resources that will help them receive appropriate preventive care, especially given the current underuse of ambulatory care services and insufficient amount of counseling available to young adults.

Too bad the money used on this research didn't go towards trying to reach those goals.

Shifting Risk Rather Than Solving Problems

I can't believe the utility company might get away with this.

Even as firefighters continue fighting the Station fire, the largest brush fire in Los Angeles County history, an emotionally charged issue is flaring over how to avoid a repeat of the disastrous 2007 fires in San Diego County.

On Thursday, the Public Utility Commission is set to vote on a San Diego Gas & Electric Co. proposal to turn off power to some back-country areas during fire-prone times of high winds and low humidity. 

The fires, which burned more than 200,000 acres and destroyed more than 1,500 homes, were caused by sparking electrical wires blown down by unusually fierce Santa Ana winds. Power company executives say the shut-off plan would be used sparingly and with several hours' notice. The company has offered to buy generators for schools and sent debit cards to low-income elderly residents in case their homes are without power and they need to evacuate.

For people with health problems who could find themselves without power to run breathing machines and other life-saving equipment, the company is offering emergency transportation to hospitals.

Time out.  If power lines are designed and strung correctly, winds can't blow the lines together.  Yes lines can stretch over time, which is one of the reasons they need periodic maintenance.  In some situations, using line separators is appropriate.  Yet, the proposed solution in San Diego County is to shut off power rather than fixing the problems? 

What about the water supplies needed to fight fires?  Rural water districts and individuals with wells had better have back-up generators, or the homeowners won't be able to help protect their property. 

It figures that city folks would think this is a good idea.

The City Council has endorsed the utility's plan. "We cannot afford to keep crossing our fingers and hoping that catastrophic fires won't spread into the city of San Diego from the rural areas of the county," said Councilwoman Marti Emerald as the council prepared to vote recently.

But the supervisors voted 3 to 2 to oppose it. Chairwoman Dianne Jacob, who represents much of the fire-prone back country, is pointed in her criticism of San Diego Gas & Electric Co., a division of Sempra Energy. She says the company is trying to avoid spending money to "harden" its operation by installing underground lines, metal poles and devices that keep wires from battering each other. 

"This has nothing to do with safety," Jacob said. "It's about saving money for SDG&E and shifting liability to other people and agencies."

...

The company recently agreed to pay $740 million to insurance companies for property damage done by the Witch, Rice and Guejito fires that roared through the county in October 2007.

Power companies usually go to extra effort to prevent poles in soggy settings from rotting and toppling.  But in highly fire-prone settings, they roll the dice...maybe that needs to change.  Going to underground lines would improve safety and reliability...they might prove worth the higher installation costs.

Niggli said the company has spent more than $40 million on system improvements and preparation for the shut-off program. He said computer modeling shows that no more than 10,000 customers would be without power in any incident. Also, the company notes that San Diego is the only major county in the state without a county fire department.

So what...it's not as if those rural areas lack fire protection.  Quoting a previous post on this topic...

Rural San Diego County doesn't have a centralized fire department, instead relying upon a number of independent operations.  The quality varies widely, generally dependent upon the affluence of the local community. 

There has been a push in San Diego County to merge the rural fire departments and set a common standard.  However, the $110 million price tag (an '05 estimate) has been a wee daunting.  Plus, several communities don't want to lose local control or, in some cases, see their tax dollars going to support others.

The affluent there can afford enviable fire protection.  Other areas go with more spartan set-ups.  Advocates of a centralized department are killing their chances by asking for way too much.  A sub-plot to this is the expense of firefighters on government payrolls. 

We here in rural Josephine County can relate to spartan firefighting set-ups.  We also eschew a county fire department, instead relying upon volunteer or private fire departments.  Two of our three private operations offer substandard service, and nothing forces residents in these areas to purchase any fire protection.  Those of us who pay for the best service available--modest capability--are put at risk by those who purchase the substandard services or nothing at all.  Gee, let's make things safer here by shutting off the power during periods of high wind and low humidity.

Do you suppose the Grants Pass City Council is stupid enough to think that's a good idea?  Don't answer that.

Wasting Food for Cancer

Each year, the Spanish town of Buñol hosts La Tomatina, a fiesta that features the world's largest tomato fight.  Over 20,000 people hurl more than 90,000 pounds of tomatoes for no historical reason...the event was created to draw tourists to the town.  It's grown into a week-long event that's culminated by the battle, which occurs on the last Wednesday in August.

This evening, Reno NV held its own La Tomatina.

"We're about to make Reno history," said Phil Kenny, director of Club Cal-Neva casino operations who organized the event.

Kenny said he planned the event as the request of his boss, who asked him to do an event to attract people downtown. He chose to duplicate La Tomatina because it was "bizarre," but something "we could possibly do."

He hoped to raise $50,000 for the American Cancer Society.

As for plans for next year, Kenny said he will have 100,000 pounds of tomatoes on hand instead of 50,000.

Guess we'll just ignore the environmental impact and the waste of food...it's for a good cause.

Within seconds of start time, tomatoes flew above the crowd and stayed in constant motion like flies buzzing above a carcass.

Nothing and no one remained unscathed--not onlooking bystanders nor the pavement of First and Virginia Streets.

...

People leaving the event had sundry ideas for getting home: plunging in the Truckee River, walking back to their hotel or getting into a car covered with towels.

The mayors of both Reno and nearby Sparks also subjected themselves to tomato hurlers to help raise money.