The September Stress Index information was published today. From the AP article on its metric...
The AP's Economic Stress Index calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on a county's unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. Under a rule of thumb, a county is considered stressed when its score exceeds 11.
Nationwide, the average county's stress score dipped to 10.1 in September from 10.3 in August, helped by a steadying of foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. In September 2008, the average county stress score was much lower: 6.73.
The highest stress scores were still found mainly in states that endured housing booms and busts. Nevada had the highest score, 21.95, followed by Michigan, with its battered auto industry, at 17.75. California was next, at 16.2, followed by Florida, 15.4, and Arizona, 14.26.
While the AP's interactive map (here) has data for every county, it doesn't include the overall state scores. But, its obvious that Oregon remains well up the list in stress, quite possibly in the top 10.
About 36 percent of counties in September had a score of 11 or higher, down from 39 percent of counties in August.
Twenty-nine states saw some improvement in their Stress scores from August to September.
Oregon is one of the states that saw improvement in September, with only Harney County seeing its stress score (and unemployment rate) rise. However, 22 of Oregon's 36 counties have stress scores above 11. The worst 10 are as follows:
1. 18.48 Deschutes2. 17.90 Crook
3. 15.98 Linn
4. 15.95 Harney
5T. 15.89 Douglas
5T. 15.89 Josephine
7. 14.74 Jefferson
8. 14.65 Jackson
9. 14.18 Klamath
10. 13.63 Yamhill
- Deschutes and Crook Counties easily lead the state in bankruptcies (1.98 and 1.85 percent, respectively), followed by Yamhill, Linn, and Jackson Counties.
- The foreclosure rate in Deschutes County (3.86 percent) is more than double every county in the state except Jackson...they're followed by Josephine, Clackamas, and Yamhill Counties.
- Crook County leads the state in unemployment (16.1 percent), followed by Harney, Douglas, Linn, and Deschutes Counties.
California has a number of counties in worse shape than anywhere in Oregon. In fact, six of its counties have a stress index in the top (or should we say bottom) twenty in the nation.
1. 33.51 Imperial6. 23.39 Merced
7. 23.29 Yuba
8. 22.69 San Joaquin
13. 22.37 Riverside
15. 22.16 Stanislaus
All the counties in the North State have a stress index above 11, with the worst being Shasta at 17.93.
FYI, Imperial County CA (the SE corner of the state) has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 30.1 percent. Clark County NV (think Las Vegas) has the highest foreclosure rate at 8.81 percent. And, rural Gallatin County KY has the highest bankruptcy rate 4.43 percent. The next three highest counties are along/near the Mississippi River in Tennessee...Shelby County (#4)--home to Memphis--has a bankruptcy rate of 3.59 percent.
I don't see a future calm in the economy... There are plenty stress coming ahead!
Posted by: Tony Cartman | November 04, 2009 at 10:20