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November 01, 2009

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OregonGuy

You know, I hate studies like these. Or, at least, reports like these. You end up with a number...like 53 percent of some identified group, like "overweight Caucasion girls" and immediately you get reactions like "we need to do something about this."

What the math impaired fail to get is that 53 percent is not significantly different from 50--in most cases. What does it mean to have a 50 percent occurance of a think in a group like overweight Caucasian girls? Well, it would seem to me that the likelyhood of Caucasian girls who are overweight are just as likely to not do a thing.

What kind of predictability do studies like this allow you to have? None. Actions are just as well predicted by random noise.
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RoguePundit

The CDC data itself is a compilation of a national, 40 state, and 21 local studies which weren't identical and often involved fairly small sample sizes. Overall, the samples were tilted towards kids in urban settings. And the data itself is teens hopefully telling the truth about what they do. I can understand looking for trends in such data which might merit further research, but not much further than that.

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