Sockeye Surprise

Why does good news about salmon never get as much publicity as the bad news?  I know, stupid question.

The Columbia River sockeye run is already double the initial predictions and is on track to be the highest return since the 1950s. 

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The sockeye count at Bonneville Dam east of Portland was 157,486 fish through Thursday compared with 15,427 at the same time last year. Last year's entire run was 26,700 sockeye at Bonneville Dam.

Officials had originally predicted 75,600 but upgraded it this week to at least 210,000.

"It's never been over 100,000 this early in the year," said Joe Hymer, a Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife biologist.

The largest recorded dam count of Columbia River sockeye was 237,748 fish in 1955. The number has only topped 200,000 twice since counting began at Bonneville in 1938.

Lately, salmon predictions around here haven't a whole lot better than hurricane season forecasts.  However, officials did figure that sockeye numbers returning to Idaho would be really good...at least when compared with recent history.  Plus, the big snowpack and cooler weather have been good for the migrating salmon. 

The preseason prediction by state and federal biologists was 700 sockeye returning to the Snake River, and that number has not been updated to reflect the larger run.

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To reach their traditional spawning waters, Idaho sockeye must swim upstream through eight dams and reservoirs in the Columbia and Snake systems, then all the way to the Salmon River's headwaters, a trip of 900 miles and 6,500 vertical feet. It's the longest salmon migration in North America.

Time out...let's not forget Alaska.  The salmon that migrate up the Yukon River through Alaska into Canada can travel over 1,850 miles.  And there are lots of sockeye in Alaska.  The harvest there this year is expected to be 47 million, topping the average of 41.5 million.  However, the sockeye is listed as endangered in the Snake River system and threatened in Ozette Lake and tributaries (WA).   

If 700 sockeye reached the Stanley Basin, it would be the most since 1975, which is the first year salmon counting started at Lower Granite Dam.

The record sockeye count at Lower Granite was 531 in 1976.

This year's run would also be larger than the previous nine years combined at Lower Granite.

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Since 1991, returns have ranged from small to zero. Last year, four fish returned to the Stanley Basin, and only 40 sockeye have returned in the last five years, mainly to Redfish Lake. The lake got its name from the once-abundant sockeye, which turn vivid red before spawning. During the 1955 run, 4,361 fish returned to Stanley.

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In order for sockeye to be removed from the endangered species list, more than 2,000 adult fish would have to return to Stanley for several years. 

What are the odds the sockeye will ever make it off the endangered species list with a goal that size?  Job security...