RoguePundit

Frosty Grapes

The Northwest definitely isn't the only part of the country where frosty weather is impacting agriculture.  Here's some news from our neighbors to the south.

The worst spring cold snap in more than 30 years is threatening to wreak havoc on the wine industry as three recent days of frost have killed grapevine buds up and down the crucial California vineyard region.

So far, grape growers estimate that as much as 10 percent of their crops could be lost, an unusual occurrence in an industry that hasn't seen a significant spring frost since the early 1970s. But the real impact won't be known until June, when the first grapes start to actually show and farmers can take a count of what they expect to harvest.

For now, all they can do is hope no more freezes occur so their vines can recover by pushing out new shoots to replace the ones that were killed.

"This is the worst frost season I've seen since I started in this business in 1971," said grape grower David Steiner, who also is a soil conservationist with the Napa County Resource Conservation District. "It's kind of hard to tell exactly what's going to happen. It's a little worrisome."

Ten percent would cost the industry $100 million in revenue. 

The most damage to vines took place March 31 and last Saturday and Sunday, when temperatures dipped below the freezing point of 32 degrees to as low as 27 degrees throughout the region.

In checking the daily record lows in both Napa and Santa Rosa for March and April, most of them are at or a bit below freezing.  The cold this year has been surprising to many folks because almost none of those record lows were set after 1970.  The average lows this past month in California wine country--and for that matter much of the West--have certainly been below average.

Continuing with the original article... 

The snaps could not have come at a worse time, because this is when the first tender shoots of leaves and flower clusters that eventually produce grapes are pushing forth. They die if they freeze because their cells expand in the cold and burst.

This doesn't kill the vines, so if they can avoid more cold, they will produce a second growth of shoots, or buds. And though those often contain only half the grapes of the original shoot, there is no loss in quality once they fruit.

But that won't happen for another two to four weeks. It's nail-biting time until then.

...

Among the hardest-hit areas were Sonoma County vineyards in valley locations such as Dry Creek and Alexander, where cold air became stationary, inflicting the most damage. Farmers usually turn on their frost-protection machines a couple of times a year when the thermometer dips below 40 degrees, but so far this year some said they have had to activate them as many as 30 times.

Before this year, frost had affected the vineyards of the North Coast to this extent only in 1971 and in the late 1940s, growers said. A statewide cold snap in 2001 sent a scare through the industry, but the vines managed to recover enough to produce a crop only slightly smaller than usual.

Hopefully the growers got lucky.

Energy Subsidies

The government sure spends a lot of money subsidizing energy.

Since 1999, federal energy subsidies have more than doubled—from $8.2 billion to $16.6 billion in 2007. Who gets the most? “Renewables” landed $4.8 billion last year, but that includes $3.25 billion for ethanol and other biofuels. Coal and cleaner-burning “refined” coal took home $3.3 billion, while the nuclear power industry got $1.3 billion. In all, about 40% of the energy subsidy pie went toward electricity production; the rest for things like alternative fuels and energy conservation.

Federal energy subsidies seem to dominate discussion on the Hill (and overseas), from appeals by the renewable-energy industry to extend tax breaks for wind and solar power, to U.S. support for corn-derived ethanol. Sen. Alexander (R-TN), armed with the Energy Information Agency numbers, argued against the current subsidy mix in proposing his own version of clean-energy subsidies a few weeks ago.

But the raw numbers don’t tell the story. What does is how much cash the government hands out per unit of electricity produced. The winner there is refined coal, at $29.81 per megawatt hour. That’s even more than solar power ($24.34) or wind ($23.37). Nuclear power received $1.59 per megawatt hour. Regular coal took home $0.44 per megawatt hour, while the least-subsidized of power fuels was natural gas, which got just a $0.25 boost per megawatt hour.

Refined coal (coal-based synthetic fuel...which still isn't very clean stuff) supplies just 1.8 percent of the nation's electricity.  However, it was subsidized with over $2.1 billion in taxpayer dollars in FY07, nearly one-third of the total the government provided to those who generate and distribute our power (see table ES5 at this link).

When one adds up the figures, the average subsidy last year for a megawatt-hour of electricity was $1.65.  Hydro, which provides the majority of the electricity for us here in the Northwest, received just $0.67 per megawatt hour.

Random Nature #164

Cheaper Beef:  Kansas State University researchers have been looking into the comparative costs of raising beef cattle via conventional, natural, and organic methods.  The results aren't surprising.

Using data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the K-State researchers considered feed costs and availability, the number of organic grain producers, the supply and demand for such grains going to beef cattle, and the performance impacts. They found that a producer would have to make about $120 more per head on naturally finished cattle to make the same profit as they would have on conventionally finished ones. For organically finished cattle, that increases to about $400 more per head.

The greatest contributing factor to the cost of going natural or organic is feed prices, Wileman said. In areas where there are relatively few certified-organic grain producers, transporting and certifying grain adds a major expense.

Note that the USDA doesn't truly have a formal definition for natural beef, at least yet...it's really more of a marketing claim.  Thus, the costs related to natural beef were based upon data from producers who claim their beef is natural. 

Before continuing, one more piece of the original article...

...another thing to keep in mind is research showing that most growth in organic and natural food items has come from the same shoppers buying more products, not from an increase in the numbers of like-minded consumers.

Bigger Quicker:  Here's some data from a study that compared the feedlot costs of raising natural and conventional beef.  It includes the purchasing the natural and conventional feeder cattle, growing them to market weight, giving the conventional cattle growth hormones (ionophores) and antibiotics, etc.    

The cattle receiving growth hormones and antibiotics grow more quickly and are less prone overall to getting sick, enabling feedlots to grow the cattle to market weight a month faster than with natural cattle.  That saves more than enough money in feed and yardage costs to make the use of growth hormones and antibiotics cost effective.  Rather than diving into the various proven and alleged downsides to all of that hormone and antibiotic use...

Not Politically Correct:  Some point out that speeding the growth of cattle can reduce certain impacts on the environment:

- Less food consumption means that less land, energy, water, fertilizer, etc. are needed to produce the feed.

- Saving a month of feces and gas (burps and farts) reduces methane (CH4) emissions, helping with global warming.  FYI, the feeds themselves also make a big difference when it comes to the methane emissions from cattle.  For instance,

Beef cattle grazing on grass-alfalfa pasture produce 25 percent less CH4 per cow than cattle grazed on grass-only pasture.

I could go on regarding the benefits of growing cattle more quickly (if you want to read some aggressive claims, try this report)...but you get the point.  Choices.

Well, one other factoid regarding grazing...

Because 85 percent of U.S. grazing lands are unsuitable for producing crops, grazing animals more than doubles the area that can be used to produce food.

The Impact of Distance:  When it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, what you eat is often far more important than where it's from.

"Our analysis shows that despite all the attention given to food miles, the distance that food travels is only around 11% of the average American household’s food-related greenhouse gas emissions," said Weber, a research professor in Carnegie Mellon’s department of civil and environmental engineering and engineering and public policy.

The researchers report that fruit, vegetables, meat and milk produced closer to home rack up fewer petroleum-based transport miles than foods trucked cross country to your table. Yet despite the large distances involved—the average distance traveled for food in the U.S. is estimated at 4,000-5,000 miles—the large non-energy based greenhouse gas emissions associated with producing food make food production matter much more than distance traveled.

The authors suggest that eating less red meat and/or dairy products may be a more effective way for concerned citizens to lower their food-related climate impacts. They estimate that shifting to an entirely local diet would reduce the equivalent greenhouse gas emissions as driving 1,000 miles, while changing only one day per week’s meat and dairy-based calories to chicken, fish, or vegetables would have about the same impact. Shifting entirely from an average American diet to a vegetable-based one would reduce the same emissions as 8,000 miles driven per year.

Obviously, it's possible for people to overcome (or just deny) evolution and thrive on an exclusively vegetarian diet.

Asparagus Protectionism

I've blogged on multiple occasions (example here) about how low-cost Peruvian asparagus has undercut our nation's producers.  Over half of the asparagus consumed in the U.S. now comes from Peru, and we import a fair amount from Mexico as well.  In 2005, California grew about 80 percent of the asparagus in the U.S., most of it being sold fresh.  However, the industry there is shrinking rapidly...and it's blaming free trade.

California asparagus growers are struggling to hold on to what's left of their 2008 season.

After a flood of Mexican asparagus sank their Easter market, growers in the San Joaquin Delta are hoping favorable weather lasts long enough in the next few weeks to recover losses before the crop in Washington state hits full stride.

It has been a season of discontent for Stockton growers like Mark Bacchetti of Prima Bella Produce. The main problem, they say, is the North American Free Trade Agreement, which has given Mexico free reign to capture more of the U.S. asparagus market. Bacchetti said NAFTA has made Mexico a major force in the asparagus market in the past eight years.

"They are pretty much up to 27,000 acres, which is what we were 10 years ago, and they are actually oversupplying their own market now," Bacchetti said. "They start in January and are in full production in February, and when we start at the end of February, they have already saturated that market. Any production that California throws on just tanks it, so we come out of the chute just tanked."

The Andean Trade Preferences Act gave Peru tariff-free access to the U.S. asparagus market in 1991.  Irrigation of coastal desert with a mild climate enables Peru to harvest asparagus year-round, something no other major producer can do.  Add state-of-the-art packing facilities and air transport, and Peru quickly became a major player.  Modern agricultural methods are giving Mexican producers a similar--though seasonal--boost.

"The Central California asparagus window is like this now," Bacchetti said, using his thumb and forefinger to describe the narrow marketing window that growers like him have. While prices have strengthened in recent weeks, for most of the early season, Bacchetti said, they hovered in the $28-$30 range for a 28-pound crate, about the same price growers received 20 years ago.

The fortunes of California asparagus growers can be seen in the slide in harvested acreage in the state. This year's intended acreage for harvest is forecast at 16,600, down 17 percent from last year, according to USDA data. Four years ago, harvested acreage was 34,000 acres. More than 40 percent of the state's total crop comes from San Joaquin County, according to state data.

Marc Marchini, of A.M. Farms and chairman of the California Asparagus Commission, said Mexico has "decimated" the early market. Many longtime asparagus growers are either planting other crops or quitting farming altogether. With fewer growers in the industry, the commission has fewer dollars for promotion. Another problem is retail stores do not actively promote the California product.

So, why don't California's growers use something like a labeled rubber band that proudly says where the asparagus is from?  Yes, the growers support country-of-origin labeling.

The marketing window mentioned above closes (so to speak) when the asparagus harvest in Washington harvest begins.  But as I've blogged before, the asparagus industry there has also been badly hurt; all three of its canneries have closed, and it's now under 7,000 harvested acres of asparagus. 

"We get slammed at certain times of the year on Mexican product that comes in," said Watte (executive director for the California Asparagus Commission). The industry believes product is being dumped to the detriment of California growers, but current anti-dumping rules require the effects to the entire U.S. industry to be taken into account.

"We're the only ones in production during that time," she said. "We're only looking at a two-week period, so we're looking to change the rules with other like-minded commodity groups as it pertains to seasonal and perishable commodities."

As their 2008 season winds down in the next few weeks, at least weather for most of April cooperated for San Joaquin Delta growers.

"This cool weather has been kind of nice. It's keeping us going," John Bacchetti of Del Terra Farms said of the unseasonably cool temperatures. Despite a very dry March, asparagus beds still have adequate moisture to produce new spears, but the downside is the crop doesn't grow very fast, he said.

I'm going to harvest my first asparagus spears tomorrow.  With as cool as it's been, they may be a bit tough...but I'm sure I'll manage. 

Orchard Damage

The most recent cold snap seems to have hit orchards harder in parts of Washington than it did here in Oregon.

Damage from the Yakima Valley's worst freeze in more than two decades is still being assessed, but some growers are reporting they've lost their entire apple or cherry crop.

A five-day cold snap ending Monday saw overnight temperatures dip as low as 19 degrees and may have reduced a projected record apple crop to about 20 percent below average, said Yakima Valley Growers executive director Keith Mathews.

...

"It was a tough five or six days. A lot of people put a lot of money into propane to heat their orchards," he said. "Hopefully we're past the severe cold. I'm sure some farmers will be looking at a severely reduced crop and wonder if it's worth it."

...

Growers will spend the rest of the week assessing damage and deciding whether it's worth it to continue heating their orchards, said Mike Bush, an educator at the Washington State University Extension office in Yakima.

It definitely changes how one manages an orchard if there won't be enough of a particular crop to make harvesting worthwhile.  With the repeated heavy frosts around here, my parents are already resetting their summer schedule to take advantage of the time made available by a poor harvest from their small orchard.  For instance with the cold winter, it's going to take a lot more wood than normal to restock the woodshed. 

Mathews noted that farmers are suffering under the costs of keeping wind turbines and propane heaters going to warm orchards. Heaters are typically fueled by propane, which he said costs $4 per gallon and has sometimes been tough to find.

"I think the only guys that won this one are the propane dealers," he said. "Just after a hard-fought freeze, people are very tired, those that were on the front line. It's pretty depressing."

Based on blooms, early estimates of this year's statewide apple production were pegged at 120 million boxes, well above the 100 million average, he said.

But based on preliminary damage reports, there may only be about 80 million of the 40-pound boxes produced, he said.

That represents a roughly 20 percent drop that will reverberate at packing, box-making companies and other businesses, he said.

Some growers there have also suffered some damage to their pear crop.

Yakima Valley cherry growers seemed to have been hit the hardest, but the overall outlook for the cherry harvest is still promising, said Teresa Baggarley of the Washington State Fruit Commission.

"At this point, we're still being quite optimistic," she said. "The cherry crop volume overall will weather this pretty well."

Just because growers lose a substantial amount of blossoms doesn't mean the end of a crop, Mathews notes.

It only takes about 10 percent of cherry blossoms on a tree to produce a full crop, he said.

In other words, a well-mannered frost can save some fruit thinning time.

What Did He View and Why?

Last month, a former Mt. Angel Seminary student--Juan González--was arrested during a traffic stop near Yakima WA.  Turns out he was wanted in Oregon on charges of viewing child pornography (previous blog here).  After counseling him on his problems at the seminary, the bishop at the Yakima Diocese hired him to work with adults at a retreat center.  The bishop claims he didn't know that González was eventually charged in Oregon or that he ended up providing religious instruction to children.

Soon, the accused will be back in Oregon to face the charges.

A fugitive warrant from Oregon for Juan Jose González Rios was dismissed in Yakima County Superior Court Tuesday, and the $80,000 bail requirement was waived.

In return, González, 37, agreed to appear June 5 in Marion County, Ore., for arraignment on the child pornography charges.

However, González was not released from the county jail Tuesday because he still faces a hearing on his immigration status with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

González, who emigrated from Jalisco, Mexico, more than 15 years ago, has been living here on a religious visa that expired in 2005.

His attorney, J.J. Sandlin, said González will travel to Tacoma for the immigration hearing sometime in the next week. If ICE allows bail, González could be released from jail and live with his family in Tieton until he has to appear in court in Oregon.

Oregon evidently trusts González.  For reasons still unknown, the Oregon warrant remains sealed.  Hmmm.

Sandlin has emphasized from the beginning that his client is innocent of all charges.

In an earlier interview, Sandlin said González became highly distressed at the seminary because he allegedly witnessed inappropriate sexual behavior on the part of instructors and fellow students there.

The González family also alleges that he was a victim in his early 20s of sexual abuse by a Cowiche priest who has since left the state.

"Juan is a victim and a scapegoat," said his sister, Bertha González, saying that her brother told diocesan officials about the alleged abuse.

And as we know, Sandlin also claims that his client never intended to look at kiddie porn and that "whatever he did was his attempt to get away from those people in the seminary."  Or as this coverage put it...

He says he's innocent, and that the diocese set him up.
His attorney JJ Sandlin won't say much on the status of those porn charges, except that he's on amicable terms with Marion county prosecutors.
He says... they're negotiating.

Curious.

Protectionism and Beef Sales in South Korea

Last Friday, South Korea agreed to lift its restrictions on the importation of U.S. beef.  It's the latest gambit in the ongoing negotiations over a free trade agreement.

South Korea’s agreement with the U.S. to open its market to U.S. beef products from cattle of all ages is outstanding news for the U.S. beef industry and for South Korean consumers, said Philip M. Seng, president and chief executive officer of the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

"Our industry has lost between $3.5 billion and $4 billion in beef exports to South Korea since the end of 2003," he said. "And we know that there is a significant demand there for quality U.S. beef that has not been satisfied for more than four years."

What?  When the U.S. suffered its first case of mad cow disease, South Korea--then our third biggest beef customer--cut off imports.  Australia, which has never suffered a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, eagerly stepped in to fill most of the void.  It now provides nearly three-quarters of South Korea's beef imports. 

South Koreans have been pleased overall with Australian beef, while they've been unhappy with our quality control since limited imports have been resumed (previous blog here).  Demand last year for U.S. beef rebounded to only about half the previous levels.

According to the agreement, the import protocol agreed upon with the South Korean government will allow U.S. beef and beef products from cattle of all ages, which is consistent with World Animal Health Organization (OIE) guidelines and prevailing international standards.

During the last four years, the U.S. beef industry has suffered greatly from lost trade with South Korea. In 2003, the United States exported 543.6 million pounds of beef and beef variety meats to South Korea, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics. However, in 2007 the U.S. exported more than 10 times less this amount ― an estimated 53.4 million pounds valued at $117.3 million, although shipments were limited to boneless beef from cattle under 30 months of age and the market was only open for an intermittent five months during the year.

"While this is momentous news for the U.S. beef industry, it also clears one of the major obstacles to the approval of a formal free-trade agreement between our two nations," said Mr. Seng.

That last point is key.  Switching links...

The agreement comes just hours before South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, in the United States on his first overseas trip since taking office in February, meets U.S. President George W. Bush at the Camp David presidential retreat.

U.S. lawmakers have said a landmark trade pact the two countries struck about a year ago would be scuttled unless South Korea opened its market fully to U.S. beef.

Analysts have estimated the trade deal, which needs approval by legislatures in both countries, could boost their two-way, $78 billion annual trade by about $20 billion.

That proposed free trade agreement (FTA) would eliminate the 40 percent tariff that South Korea assesses on U.S. beef imports.  Our beef would then enjoy a price advantage over Australian beef, which is also subject to the tariff.  Bargain shopping (excuse me, pent-up demand) would then drive increased sales of American beef in South Korea. 

However, even with South Korea compromising on beef imports, there's no guarantee that Congress will pass the proposed FTA.  As the debate over the Colombian agreement has shown, protectionism is rather popular at the moment.  If Congress backs away from the proposed FTA with South Korea, it would end up protecting the Australian beef industry at the expense of ours.

FYI, Australia is in the early stages of negotiating a free trade agreement with South Korea. 

Stealing Some Rather Special Plaques

It's amazing what people will steal and sell as scrap metal...and what some scrap dealers will buy.   

(Last) week, a particularly audacious bandit apparently made off with over 1,000 bronze plaques from the Holocaust memorial Theresienstadt just outside of Prague. The plaques were emblazoned with the names of prisoners who died at the Nazi concentration camp there--and Czech police said this week that many of them had been discovered at a scrap yard in northern Czech Republic.

The theft, said Czech Culture Minister Vaclav Jehlicka, "has disgraced the memory of World War II victims irrespective of whether it was committed on the basis of a pervert ideology or purely for gain of money." Damage is estimated to be about 1 million koruna, or about €40,000 ($63,600).

Jehlicka said that the plaques would be replaced, but that the new tablets would be made of resin instead of bronze, a copper alloy. The remaining bronze plates, he said, would likewise be replaced at a cost of several million koruna.

The memorial is now being guarded, and a project is being drawn up to provide additional protection, including camera monitoring. 

The theft comes at a time when rising scrap metal prices have resulted in a spate of scrap metal thefts, with copper being high on the list. One hundred kilograms of copper brings in €430 on the scrap market, leading to a number of churches in Germany and Europe having their roofs and gutters stolen. A number of bronze vases and candelabras went missing from a Berlin graveyard recently and a Cologne cemetery lost 16 Madonna statues made of metal.

...

Theresienstadt, known as Terezin in Czech, has indicated that the plaques are not likely to be replaced before the May 18 annual commemoration of Nazi victims there. During World War II, the camp at Theresienstadt served as a collection point for Jews from where they were deported to death camps further east. A fortress nearby served as a Gestapo prison.

Police haven't caught the perpetrator(s), who could face up to eight years in prison.

Random Nature #163

Nectar in a Storm:  This time of year here, you don't have to see a Pacific madrone to realize that one's nearby...they buzz with the sounds of bees attending to the blossoms. The madrones are an important source of nectar for several of the native bumblebees, which in-turn are key pollinators of the madrones.  Hummingbirds also help.

Despite the swirling snow here yesterday, a couple were dining upon madrones near the house.  Rufous hummingbirds nest here on the property, including in one of those madrones.  The flowers aren't the typical color associated with attracting hummingbirds.  From this link...

Many sources note that the northward migration of the rufous hummingbird is timed with the blooming of currants, salmonberies, and madrones.  Groundhog day is the average time when the hummers arrive next door in Curry County, but that's sometimes before the favored plants are in bloom.  Thus, the hummers are probably consuming small insects.  Here's a range map. 

Rather than showing on a range map everywhere that rufous hummingbirds are found, scientists tend to refer to them as "frequent vagrants."  This species has been found in every state but Hawaii, plus eastern Canada and even eastern Siberia.  Some winter along the Gulf Coast, and others may winter as far south as Panama.  And regarding the migration back south:

The fall, or southern, migration follows a different route, from June through October. It leads through the Rocky Mountains, where the birds stop in September to feed on flowers in mountain meadows. Hummingbirds fly for several hours before stopping for as long as a week to rest and replenish their energy.

I see rufous hummingbirds around here until early fall.

Torpor:  Rufous hummingbirds regularly slow their metabolisms significantly to conserve energy.

...migrating rufous hummingbirds will enter torpor before and during their migration to minimize energy loss. This allows for more energy for the actual process of migration. Additionally, even when food sources were present and abundant, the migrating hummingbirds would enter torpor rather than burn off excess fat. It was hypothesized that this behavior comes from the fact that rufous hummingbirds lack access to large amounts of amino acids. Thus, they conserve fat so that they do not use all of its energy and have to shift to breaking down muscle. In the few cases where hummingbirds were observed without large fat stores, they were unable to quickly regain mass on migration stop-overs, probably due to the above theory.

But, torpor is something that hummingbirds use frequently.

Hummingbirds may live up to 5 years or more. They are able to live this long partly because they can slow down their bodies at night and in cold weather. At these times, they go into a trancelike state and may seem to be dead because they are stiff and may not breathe. This state is called torpor.

During the day, a hummingbird’s heart beats more than 1,200 times per minute, and the birds need to feed about every 10 minutes. During torpor, their heart rate can slow to 50 beats per minute, slower than most humans’.

One of the best times to watch hummingbirds feed is just after a heavy rainstorm.  They're hungry, so they waste much less time and energy squabbling over territory and devote themselves to eating.

Others:  A number of bats in temperate regions hibernate during the winter.  That's different from torpor, a strategy which many bats also use.

Hibernation seems to be a response to a decrease in the ambient temperature, rather than a decrease in food supply. Through hibernation, bats adapt to cold winter temperatures by reducing their metabolic rates to near-death low levels. Some bats experience hibernation during the winter months, while others experience a lighter phase called daily torpor, during the summer. Daily torpor resembles sleeping more than hibernation, and animals are easily roused. During periods of daily torpor normal body functions are slowed down, but not as profoundly as during winter hibernation. It is common for insectivorous bats in temperate regions of North America to hibernate during the winter, to have daily torpor periods during the summer, or to experience a combination of both. Whether a bat experiences daily torpor or a winterlong deeper hibernation depends on the region where the bat lives and how cold the winters are.

Bats don't go into torpor to avoid hot weather, but some species do.

Estivation is like hibernation in hot weather. Animals that live in deserts or tropical climates practice estivation. It may not occur solely because of food supply issues, as with hibernation, but because the conditions become too hot and dry for the animal to survive. The process typically involves burrowing into the ground, where the temperature stays cool, and reducing metabolic activity in a similar manner to hibernation.

Lungfish are capable of an amazing form of estivation that allows them to live without water for as long as three years. Lungfish are primitive fish that still have lungs, allowing them to breathe air. When a lungfish's lake dries up, the fish burrows into the mud, then secretes mucus until its entire body is covered. The mucus dries into a sack that holds moisture in. Even when the mud dries completely, the lungfish stays moist and breaths through a mucus tube.

Yes, that article said hibernation, though it's generally thought that lungfish are in light torpor when estivating.  A few reptiles (like the desert tortoise) and a number of amphibians estivate, as do some snails.  There's even a mammal that estivates for seven months of the year, the Madagascan fat-tailed dwarf lemur.  That's how the little primate endures the winter dry season, which is hot there.

Scientists can get into spirited debates over what constitutes hibernation, torpor, etc.  Because bears will awaken and walk around during hibernation (even give birth), some say that they are actually in torpor.  Others argue that their body temperature doesn't lower enough for it to even qualify as torpor.  Little wonder some claim that bears actually have a sophisticated form of hibernation.

Smoking Bans and Drunk Driving

The following was in last week's Economist.  Yes, I'm catching up on my reading.

Banning smoking in public places is supposed to save lives. It encourages people to smoke less, so they do themselves and those around them less harm. That, at least, is the theory. Whether it works may depend on how uniform anti-smoking legislation is.

Although many countries have introduced national bans, America has taken a piecemeal approach. A number of states, counties and municipalities have introduced various types of bans, and have enforced them with varying degrees of rigour.

The problem with this, say Scott Adams and Chad Cotti, economists at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, is that smoking bans seem to have been followed by an increase in drunk-driving and in fatal accidents involving alcohol. In research published in the Journal of Public Economics, the authors find evidence that smokers are driving farther to places where smoking in bars is allowed.

The researchers analysed data from 120 American counties, 20 of which had banned smoking. They found a smoking ban increased fatal alcohol-related car accidents by 13% in a typical county containing 680,000 people. This is the equivalent of 2.5 fatal accidents (equivalent to approximately six deaths). Furthermore, drunk-driving smokers have not changed their ways over time. In areas where the ban has been in place for longer than 18 months, the increased accident rate is 19%.

The findings, say the pair, are consistent with the suggestion that smokers are driving farther to alternative places to drink. This may be because they are driving to bars with outdoor seating, or to bars which are not enforcing the smoking ban.

And let's not forget tribal casinos that can set their own smoking rules.  They offer a triple-threat of addictive activities.

Another explanation is that some smokers are “jurisdiction shopping” to places where they may puff. Accident rates can be especially high where border-hopping to still-smoky bars is possible. Accidents in Delaware county in Pennsylvania increased by 26% after the next-door state of Delaware introduced a smoking ban in 2002. Similarly, when Boulder county banned smoking, fatal accidents in Jefferson county, between Boulder county and Denver, went up by 40%. How this weighs up against the long-term health effects of smoking bans is unclear. But it serves as a warning to well-meaning legislators.

Doubtful.