New Justification: Climate change will be greatest near the poles, but the UN and various non-governmental organizations say that it will have its greatest impact on developing nations...which are predominantly in and near the tropical latitudes.
To understand how the effects of climate change will interact with socio-economic and political problems in poorer countries means tracing the consequences of consequences. This process highlights four key elements of risk--political instability, economic weakness, food insecurity and large-scale migration. Political instability and bad governance make it hard to adapt to the physical effects of climate change and hard to handle any conflicts that arise without violence. Economic weakness narrows the range of income possibilities for the population and deprives the state of resources with which to meet people's needs. Food insecurity challenges the very basis of being able to continue living in a particular locality and, as a response to that and other kinds of insecurity, large-scale migration carries high risk of conflict because of the fearful reactions it often receives and the inflammatory politics that often greets it.
...
The double-headed problem of climate change and violent conflict thus has a unified solution--peacebuilding and adaptation are effectively the same type of activity, involving the same kinds of dialogue and social engagement, requiring from governments the same values of inclusivity and transparency.
A society that can develop adaptive strategies for climate change in this way is well-equipped to avoid armed conflict. And a society that can manage conflicts and major disagreements over serious issues without a high risk of violence is well-equipped to adapt successfully to the challenge of climate change. Climate change could even reconcile otherwise divided communities by posing a threat against which to unite and tasks on which to cooperate.
If the above sounded like a sales pitch for increased foreign aid...
The Shortfall: In its own words, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)...
...brings together the governments of countries committed to democracy and the market economy from around the world to:
• Support sustainable economic growth
• Boost employment
• Raise living standards
• Maintain financial stability
• Assist other countries' economic development
• Contribute to growth in world trade
The 30 OECD members are all industrialized nations. Back in 1970, the 22 members--all European except for Canada, Japan, and the U.S.--agreed to the following in UN General Assembly Resolution 2626:
"In recognition of the special importance of the role which can be
fulfilled only by official development assistance, a major part of
financial resource transfers to the developing countries should be
provided in the form of official development assistance. Each
economically advanced country will progressively increase its official
development assistance to the developing countries and will exert its
best efforts to reach a minimum net amount of 0.7 per cent of its gross
national product at market prices by the middle of the Decade."
But, only 42 percent of that total has actually been provided as official development assistance (ODA). The OECD keeps track of the shortfall.
The U.S. is easily the largest donor in terms of dollars. But when one translates that into a percentage of our gross national product--now referred to as gross national income (GNI), we're constantly at or near the bottom. For instance, the U.S. contributed 0.22 percent of its GNI in 2005, ranking us only ahead of Portugal. But, that percentage was higher than we'd given each of the previous three years...yes, Iraq has helped boost the number. Rather than diving into the reasons why the U.S. and several other nations have been coming up a wee light, or how much of the money has been lost to corruption...
Paying Someone Else to Change: As I've noted before, some are advocating that a global cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions could augment or potentially replace foreign aid. From a speech last month by the OECD Secretary-General:
"We must find a way to share the burden of the costs of climate
change action that takes into account the level of economic development
of nations," he said. "We need to create a sound economic footing for
the post-Kyoto framework."
Mr. Gurría said the policies needed to tackle climate change were
already available, but needed to be implemented efficiently and
effectively. The policy "toolkit" could rely heavily on market-based
instruments, such as taxes or a global emission trading system, also
known as a cap and trade system, complemented by regulations and
incentives for innovation.
"By agreeing more ambitious caps, in the context of a global trading
system, developed countries could carry a relatively greater financial
responsibility than developing countries," he said. "And enabling
trading in emission permits would encourage mitigation action to take
place where it is cheapest and so keep the global costs low."
When it comes to climate change, he'd rather tax bad behaviors than subsidize good ones. But if polluters would like to pay others to reduce their emissions...
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is an arrangement under the Kyoto Protocol allowing industrialised countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing
countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in
their own countries. The most important factor of a carbon project
is that it establishes that it would not have occurred without the
additional incentive provided by emission reductions credits.
Some developing nations have filthy power plants to clean-up, ozone-depleting chemicals to destroy, etc. Here's where the CDM Certified Emission Reductions were generated in 2006.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, South Korea is (amazingly) considered a developing nation...it's expected to garner 7.58 percent of the CDM credits this year. China should drop to under 50 percent. Meanwhile, the poorest continent still isn't doing very well, because it's...
Not Developed Enough: From the World Bank's "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007" (here)...
All of Africa (including South Africa and the countries of North Africa) remain at 3 percent of the market, and all the other countries of Sub-Saharan Africa account for just about one-third of that number. These numbers clearly demonstrate the difficulty of expanding carbon business in much of Africa, where electricity access is a major challenge and therefore mitigation opportunities are also limited; e.g. in Uganda or Zambia, just around 10% of the country's population has access to the grid for electricity. Yet, a clean, grid-connected electricity project in such a country has to demonstrate under CDM rules that it displaces "carbon-intensive" electricity on its grid; the fact that it derives mainly power from clean hydro sources is seen as a reason for it not to receive credits for proposed new clean energy sources.
This unintended consequence unnecessarily punishes the poorest people in poor countries, who can least afford to use expensive diesel, kerosene or fuel wood for their basic needs. The poor usually forego even the most basic benefits of modern energy services that so many others take for granted. No approved methodology exists as of yet through which countries with such obvious energy needs such as these can be rewarded for clean development. The broader eligibility of projects expanding opportunities for clean electricity with large hydro grids would help make more development opportunities available for people, with CDM playing a role in helping to meet their aspirations.
...
Carbon assets from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) remain at one percent of volumes transacted so far. ... Large classes of LULUCF assets including possibly soil sequestration, fire management and avoided deforestation, among others, remain attractive opportunities to promote sustainable development in Africa and in other natural resources-based economies, but are still systematically excluded from the CDM and other regulatory markets.
Too often in poorer nations, sustainable development comes in the form of conservation initiatives that offer little-if-any economic benefit to those being displaced. Meanwhile, population growth and the desire to improve one's condition continue to put increasing pressure on the lands and species that conservationists are trying to protect.
Valuing Nature: From a recent World Economics article (no direct link...search for author Mike Norton-Griffiths)...
1977 was an important year for the conservation in Kenya for it was then that sport hunting and all other consumptive uses of wildlife and attendant value added activities were banned. It was also the year when the Kenya Rangeland Ecological Monitoring (KREMU) began to monitor the numbers and distribution of livestock and wildlife throughout the 193,000 square miles of Kenya's arid and semi-arid rangelands.
So, perhaps uniquely, a major change in conservation policy--a ban on all consumptive utilization of wildlife--coincided with a new capacity to monitor its effect and impact.
The monitoring results have been deeply disturbing, and by the mid-1990s a number of warnings were issued about a major decline in wildlife right across Kenya's rangelands, even in the most heavily used tourist areas. The only good news was that the loss rates seemed significantly less inside the Protected Areas than outside where some 70% of all Kenya's wildlife are to be found. More recent analyses eliminate even this ray of hope--rates of wildlife loss continue unchecked, and are now the same both inside and outside the Protected Areas. Since 1977, Kenya has lost 60%-70% of all its large wildlife.
While losses of such magnitude indicate a major institutional failure to protect wildlife, the pernicious spread of agriculture throughout the rangelands, even around important conservation and tourism areas like the Mara area of Narok and the Amboseli area in Kajaido, give clear signals of a policy failure. Indeed, the entire economic system of rangeland production in Kenya has undergone a radical transformation since the mid-1970s: the human population is growing at >3% per annum; cultivation is growing at >8% per annum; while livestock numbers remain stable, offtake is growing at >4% per annum; and wildlife is decreasing by >3% per annum.
The author of this study posits that the most important policy failure is the ban on "consumptive utilization of large wildlife." He also lays considerable blame at the feet of tourism cartels for ensuring that about 95% of the revenue goes to the agents and providers of accommodations and transportation. There's little-if-any opportunity for all the small landowners who are dealing with the impacts of the wildlife. As the author puts it:
Consider the goat--and suppose you were not allowed to use it in any way at all (no marketing, no slaughter, no use of milk, meat or skin), and that if you were discovered to be using it you would at worst be shot dead, or at best imprisoned--indeed imagine that all you could do with your goat was hope a minibus of tourists would drive by and photograph it, from which you might obtain a meagre reward. How many goats do you imagine would remain in Kenya? This is the nub of the continued survival of wildlife on the rangelands of Kenya.
He goes on to offer a number of suggestions for allowing the sustainable harvest of some of the wildlife, incentivizing landowners to at least not drive off or kill wildlife, and revising property rights to give landowners, for instance, some say in how the tourism industry operates.
...not a single tourism company in Kenya invests in wildlife or habitat management, even though their very economic future depends upon the resource.
Not much sustainable about that supposed development.
Recent Comments