Random Nature #119

Early Adopters:  Headlines last week noted that Oregon is eighth in the nation in wind power with 439 MW of installed capacity.  That leaves us behind the other Pacific Coast states.  Washington is fifth at 818 MW, and California is second at 2,361 MW (Texas is now #1).  These statistics sure don't look a lot like the rankings for wind energy potential in the U.S.

THE TOP TWENTY STATES for Wind Energy Potential as measured by annual energy potential in the billions of kWh, factoring in environmental and land use exclusions for wind class of 3 and higher.
		B kWh/Yr			B kWh/Yr
1.	North Dakota	1,210	11.	Colorado	481
2.	Texas	1,190	12.	New Mexico	435
3.	Kansas	1,070	13.	Idaho	73
4.	South Dakota	1,030	14.	Michigan	65
5.	Montana	1,020	15.	New York	62
6.	Nebraska	868	16.	Illinois	61
7.	Wyoming	747	17.	California	59
8.	Oklahoma	725	18.	Wisconsin	58
9.	Minnesota	657	19.	Maine	56
10.	Iowa	551	20.	Missouri	52

Potential:  Why isn't the wind energy potential for the Western states higher?  The map below helps illustrate the issue.  The darker the color, the greater the average wind power.   

In other words, there is quite a bit of wind power potential west of the Rockies.  However, most of it is on federal lands with various environmental restrictions.  From testimony last year by the Associate Chief of the Forest Service to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources...     

Wind resource classification is only one of the factors that must be considered in estimating wind energy potential. For one thing, not all windy sites are suitable for wind power development. Some are on steep, rocky or inaccessible terrain; others are in scenic or protected forests and parks; still others are in densely populated areas.

One U.S. Department of Energy study that took these factors into account grouped areas of the country into five categories of land use: environmental (such as national parks), urban, forest, cropland and range land. The researchers then constructed four scenarios that considered varying degrees and types of possible land use exclusions to arrive at a range of estimates of the wind energy potential in each wind class.

They found that the windiest areas (class 5 and above) could support enough wind power capacity to provide 18 percent to 53 percent of the electricity consumed in 1993. The lower figure represents the most severe assumptions of land use exclusion, while the upper figure represents no exclusions at all. Most of the prospective sites in these classes are concentrated in the Great Plains states.

The siting issues don't just apply to the turbines themselves but to access roads and transmission lines.  Thus for instance, the wind energy project proposed in the Green Mountain National Forest in Vermont is an expansion of an existing facility on private land neighboring the forest.   

Assets:  The U.S. ranks third in the world in wind power capacity.  Germany is easily the leader, followed by Spain--which the U.S. should pass this year.  From this link,

Wind energy in the United States grew by 20 percent to 11,600 megawatts (MW) last year, enough to generate power for about 3 million average U.S. homes, the American Wind Energy Association said on Wednesday.

Three million homes sounds better than a statistic which is also true...

...less than one percent of the nation's electricity is currently supplied by wind power.

Wind power will never provide the majority of the nation's power, because it's only available when the weather permits.  However, wind energy can certainly provide a greater percentage of the nation's electricity than it currently does...maybe as high as 20 percent.  Helping encourage that continued growth are the increasing number of clean energy mandates and the 1.9 cent per kilowatt-hour tax credit (for ten years after a wind energy project is built).  That tax credit expires at the end of this fiscal year, though it will likely be extended. 

Who's the biggest wind energy producer in the U.S.?  FPL Group, which has grown beyond its Florida Power & Light roots, owns 47 wind farms (and counting) in 15 states.  Those facilities generate about one-third of the wind energy in the U.S., including a fair amount of the production in the West.  For instance, FPL sells all of the power generated at its Stateline Energy Center (the nation's third largest, stradling the border between Walla Walla WA and Milton-Freewater OR) to PacifiCorp.  Plus, FPL owns the Vansycle Ridge Wind Farm near Pendleton (PGE purchases that power) and a number of wind energy facilities in California (list here).

FYI, Mid-American Energy Holdings (which owns PacifiCorp) ranks third in selling wind energy to its utility customers.  The leader is XCel Energy, followed by Southern California Edison.  PG&E is fourth.

Comments

[TROTSKY]

I've heard that during last year's California heat wave, when the state set records for electricity consumption, all the windmills in Tehachapi and Palm Springs were idle.

Apparently the same high-pressure ridge that create the heat wave also stops the wind. Darned inconvenient timing, that.

[RoguePundit]

Ugh. That's reminiscent of what could happen during a significant cold snap in the northern Great Plains, where much of our wind potential is. When the temperatures are coldest and energy demands the highest, the air is often still, especially at night. And if it's a stormy or record cold, the weather may be too severe for the wind turbines to operate.